Qatar and Tehran are intensifying coordination over Gaza Strip mediation efforts.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 5 YES of 8 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (3 NO, 63% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? resolved 2026-04-30
- YES Qatar Open: Carlos Alcaraz vs Karen Khachanov resolved 2026-02-26
- YES Qatar Open: Jakub Mensik vs Jannik Sinner resolved 2026-02-26
- NO Qatar Total Open: Emma Navarro vs Anna Kalinskaya resolved 2026-02-17
- YES Iran strike on Qatar by February 28, 2026? resolved 2026-01-31
- NO Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? resolved 2025-09-30
Entities
- Gaza Strip (place) gravity 0.0615 · momentum +0.052 · Q41274
- Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
- Qatar (place) gravity 0.0061 · momentum +0.043 · Q846
Signals
- factor_ab 25.3
- factor_ac 2.42
- factor_bc 28
- min_factor 2.42
- window_days 30
Confidence (52%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Gaza Strip, Tehran, and Qatar) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.