Lebanon and Tehran are intensifying coordination around Gaza Strip developments as regional tensions escalate.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 5 YES of 9 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (4 NO, 56% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- YES Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? resolved 2026-06-30
- YES Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? resolved 2026-03-31
- NO Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? resolved 2026-01-31
- YES Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8? resolved 2025-11-21
- NO Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? resolved 2024-11-30
- YES Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? resolved 2024-10-31
Entities
- Gaza Strip (place) gravity 0.0615 · momentum +0.052 · Q41274
- Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
- Lebanon (place) gravity 0.0352 · momentum -0.019 · Q822
Signals
- factor_ab 34.29
- factor_ac 2.42
- factor_bc 79.82
- min_factor 2.42
- window_days 30
Confidence (52%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Gaza Strip, Tehran, and Lebanon) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.