Washington is intensifying pressure on Iran over its nuclear program through diplomatic demands and military posturing.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 7 YES of 19 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (12 NO, 37% YES rate).

Entities

• Washington, D.C. (place) gravity 0.0253 · momentum -0.038 · Q61
• Iran nuclear (topic) gravity 0.0030 · momentum +0.998

Signals

• factor 12.52
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2.5
• edge_weight_recent 31.3
• event_count_recent 54

Confidence (52%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Washington, D.C. and Iran nuclear returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 00:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone +0.51
  Iran must accept reality come to negotiation table rubio says us trying to understand topics tehran wants to negotiate on
  Iran nuclear · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 22:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.91
  Us intelligence finds iran's nuclear weapon development timeline unchanged even after months of war report
  Iran nuclear · Nuclear threat · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:30:00 · gdelt · 196 Violate ceasefire · tone -6.53
  Wave the white flag trump says iran's military is totally gone warns tehran knows what not to do in hormuz
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -0.64
  Did you know the us and israel helped create iran nuclear project here the story
  Iran nuclear · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.15
  20260505 trump says us must make a journey to iran to seize nuclear material
  Iran nuclear · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 00:00:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -1.65
  Trump to delay iran strike decision ceasefire talks emerge pakistan israel us president donald trump benajmin netanyahu prime minister ayatollah truth social
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -2.42
  Trump to delay iran strike decision ceasefire talks emerge pakistan israel us president donald trump benajmin netanyahu prime minister ayatollah truth social
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -6.54
  Tehran airstrikes trump deadline
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:30:00 · gdelt · 084 Return, release · tone -3.28
  Who are those people foxs lawrence jones grills far left dem over claim voters are sad ayatollah is dead
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:45:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -6.83
  Trump threatens to bomb irans infra in order to get tehran to yield
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -3.18
  Tehran hormuz
  Hormuz · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 12:30:00 · gdelt · 182 Physically assault · tone -3.67
  Iranian strike injures 15 U.S. troops in kuwait amid allegations of washington cover up effort report claims
  Gaza Strip · Iran · Iran nuclear · Kuwait · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 08:15:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -8.69
  Iran war tehran defiant as trump deadline nears
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 08:00:00 · gdelt · 071 Provide economic aid · tone -7.44
  Tehran strikes whats next operation epic fury khamenei exit hunter person donald trump washington
  Donald Trump · Gaza Strip · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 06:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.26
  Donald trump may hold off iran strike if deal comes together says report amid deadline to tehran
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 03:45:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -5.00
  Pointing gun at our head and then wanting us to negotiate will never work for iran tehran universitys professor on trumps threats
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 01:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -7.69
  Trump iran washington keir starmer tehran
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Keir Starmer · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.32
  Donald trump threatens iran with night of destruction as tehran rejects ceasefire proposal
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 21:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.11
  Irans nuclear gamble leaves america one choice cant deal
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 17:15:00 · gdelt · 139 Give ultimatum · tone -5.98
  Watch live president trump to host press conference after issuing profanity laced ultimatum to tehran
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗

Confidence history