Hamas is intensifying its presence in London discourse as British authorities investigate escalating antisemitic attacks and arson incidents targeting Jewish institutions.

42% ↑+3% (7d) Europe 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 10:58:14

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 8 YES of 29 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (21 NO, 28% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Will Hamas agree to disarm by December 31? resolved 2025-12-31
YES Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? resolved 2025-12-31
YES Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31? resolved 2025-10-31
NO Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 12? resolved 2025-10-31
YES Will Hamas release all Israeli hostages by October 31? resolved 2025-10-31
NO Israel x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by October 31? resolved 2025-10-31

Entities

London (place) gravity 0.0054 · momentum -0.050 · Q84
Hamas (org) gravity 0.0045 · momentum -0.014 · Q170228

Signals

factor 3.95
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 2
edge_weight_recent 7.9
event_count_recent 13

Confidence (42%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between London and Hamas returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (11)

2026-05-06 14:30:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -8.30

Uk investigates another shul arson as pm starmer convenes emergency meeting on antisemitism crisis

Hamas · London

source ↗
2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -0.25

Gop senator brutal primary praised islamic charity after feds cut terror scrutinized parent review finds

Hamas · London

source ↗
2026-05-05 20:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -7.13

Synagogue arson london antisemitism iran jewish stabbing h18770

Hamas · London

source ↗
2026-05-05 19:30:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -7.67

Counterterror police probe arson attack at former london synagogue amid wave of antisemitic attacks

Hamas · London

source ↗
2026-05-04 00:30:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -5.74

Uk pm starmer says could

Hamas · Israel · London

source ↗
2026-05-03 07:45:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -4.36

British premier hints at banning some pro palestinian marches

Hamas · Israel · London

source ↗
2026-05-02 14:15:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -6.49

Uk pm starmer says there could be new powers ban pro palestinian marches

Hamas · Israel · London

source ↗
2026-05-02 13:45:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -5.88

Uk pm starmer says there could be new powers to ban pro palestinian marches

Hamas · Israel · London

source ↗
2026-04-29 16:45:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -7.62

2 jewish men stabbed london attack classified terrorism

Hamas · Israel · London

source ↗
2026-04-29 14:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -10.76

Article e979606c 9b08 5b73 8335

Hamas · Israel · London

source ↗
2026-04-24 13:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.72

Londons jewish community edge amid attacks

Hamas · Israel · London

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 40% → 42% across 5 observations.