Tehran and Washington are intensifying military posturing over regional shipping routes and strategic deadlines.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 6 YES of 13 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (7 NO, 46% YES rate).

Entities

• Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
• Washington, D.C. (place) gravity 0.0253 · momentum -0.038 · Q61

Signals

• factor 8.08
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2.5
• edge_weight_recent 20.2
• event_count_recent 35

Confidence (48%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tehran and Washington, D.C. returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (13)

• 2026-05-04 08:00:00 · gdelt · 070 Provide aid · tone -6.83
  Iran warns us to stay out of hormuz as washington plans ship escorts
  Hormuz · Iran · Lebanon · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -6.54
  Tehran airstrikes trump deadline
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:45:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -6.83
  Trump threatens to bomb irans infra in order to get tehran to yield
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -3.18
  Tehran hormuz
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 08:15:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -8.69
  Iran war tehran defiant as trump deadline nears
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 08:00:00 · gdelt · 071 Provide economic aid · tone -7.44
  Tehran strikes whats next operation epic fury khamenei exit hunter person donald trump washington
  Donald Trump · Gaza Strip · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 06:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.26
  Donald trump may hold off iran strike if deal comes together says report amid deadline to tehran
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 03:45:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -5.00
  Pointing gun at our head and then wanting us to negotiate will never work for iran tehran universitys professor on trumps threats
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 01:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -6.47
  Defiance without leverage tehrans fatal miscalculation
  Iran · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 01:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -7.69
  Trump iran washington keir starmer tehran
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Keir Starmer · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.32
  Donald trump threatens iran with night of destruction as tehran rejects ceasefire proposal
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 17:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.98
  Watch live president trump to host press conference after issuing profanity laced ultimatum to tehran
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 16:00:00 · gdelt · 011 Decline comment · tone -6.05
  Tehran rejects latest ceasefire proposal wants permanent end to the war irans state media
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗

Confidence history