India and Qatar are intensifying diplomatic coordination amid regional tensions and bilateral concerns over security and economic ties.

46% → 0% (7d) Middle East 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 10:56:04

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 47 YES of 90 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (43 NO, 52% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Chennai Super Kings resolved 2026-05-12
YES Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Lucknow Super Giants resolved 2026-05-11
NO Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Kolkata Knight Riders resolved 2026-05-10
YES Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Punjab Kings resolved 2026-05-10
YES Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Mumbai Indians resolved 2026-05-09
NO Indian Premier League: Rajasthan Royals vs Delhi Capitals resolved 2026-05-08

Entities

Qatar (place) gravity 0.0061 · momentum +0.043 · Q846
India (place) gravity 0.0032 · momentum +0.190 · Q668

Signals

factor 6.67
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 1.5
edge_weight_recent 10
event_count_recent 20

Confidence (46%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Qatar and India returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (5)

2026-04-07 21:00:00 · gdelt · 025 Appeal to yield · tone -2.46

Middle east tensions indian embassy qatar issues advisory 844

Al Udeid Air Base · India · Qatar

source ↗
2026-04-07 11:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -2.00

India and bangladesh ministers meet to repair ties amid controversies key talks on teesta water sharing and fuel supply

Bangladesh · India · Iran · Qatar

source ↗
2026-04-07 05:30:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -1.61

Lpg crisis sparks debate on ethanol as alternative cooking fuel in india

India · Qatar

source ↗
2026-04-06 19:30:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -3.38

Its the politics stupid political not economic dynamics to derisk supply chains is what india needs

India · Qatar

source ↗
2026-04-06 19:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -2.42

Eam jaishankar holds talks with counterparts from qatar uae iran as india reiterates for de escalation dialogue

India · Iran · New Delhi · Qatar · Tehran

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 50% → 46% across 5 observations.