Tensions between the United States and Iran over nuclear development are intensifying as diplomatic overtures clash with military assessments of Tehran's weapons program.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 5 YES of 16 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (11 NO, 31% YES rate).

Entities

• United States (place) gravity 0.0596 · momentum -0.040 · Q30
• Iran nuclear (topic) gravity 0.0030 · momentum +0.998

Signals

• factor 5.15
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 10.4
• edge_weight_recent 53.6
• event_count_recent 98

Confidence (44%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between United States and Iran nuclear returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 07:15:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -2.71
  Irans president says tehran ready for dialogue within international law framework
  Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 04:15:00 · gdelt · 172 Impose administrative sanctions · tone -4.70
  Ayatollah khamenei told to stop posting because hes dead
  Iran nuclear · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 02:15:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -6.48
  Iran rejects uae claims of tehran targeting civilian sites warns against retaliatory action
  Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 01:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.83
  Us intelligence only sees limited damage iran nuclear program after 38 day bombing
  Gaza Strip · Iran nuclear · Israel · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 22:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.91
  Us intelligence finds iran's nuclear weapon development timeline unchanged even after months of war report
  Iran nuclear · Nuclear threat · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 22:00:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -2.76
  Iran president says tehran ready for dialogue within intl law framework
  Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 21:00:00 · gdelt · 039 Express intent to mediate · tone +1.67
  Iraqs incoming pm offers to mediate between tehran and washington 504696
  Iran nuclear · Iraq · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 20:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -0.64
  Did you know the us and israel helped create iran nuclear project here the story
  China · Iran nuclear · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:30:00 · gdelt · 0871 Declare truce, ceasefire · tone -6.22
  Uae air defences engage missiles drones tehran denies attacking uae
  Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.15
  20260505 trump says us must make a journey to iran to seize nuclear material
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 13:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -5.92
  Centcom denies iranian strike on warship tehran calls it warning shots
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States · US Central Command
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 12:30:00 · gdelt · 194 Fight with artillery and tanks · tone -1.90
  Iranian media claim tehran fired missiles at us navy vessel
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 00:15:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -0.43
  Trump declares two week ceasefire with iran but unclear if tehran has agreed
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 00:15:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -2.81
  Trump tehran reach deal on two week cease fire
  Donald Trump · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 00:00:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -1.81
  Trump to delay iran strike decision ceasefire talks emerge pakistan israel us president donald trump benajmin netanyahu prime minister ayatollah truth social
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:45:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -2.42
  Trump to delay iran strike decision ceasefire talks emerge pakistan israel us president donald trump benajmin netanyahu prime minister ayatollah truth social
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Pakistan · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.92
  Iran war trump deadline tehran bombing infrastructure latest news
  Donald Trump · Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 22:00:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -3.76
  Iraqi tehran aligned militia frees american journalist prisoner swap
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Iraq · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -6.67
  Marjorie taylor greene calls for the 25th amendment to be invoked after trumps iran post israel nuclear weapon
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Nuclear threat · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 16:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.18
  Tehran hormuz
  Iran · Iran nuclear · Tehran · United States
  source ↗

Confidence history