Iran is intensifying rhetoric and military posturing toward Israel's nuclear facilities, particularly Dimona, amid escalating regional tensions.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Dimona (place) gravity 0.0007 · momentum -0.039 · Q152396

Signals

• factor 39.6
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 0.5
• edge_weight_recent 19.8
• event_count_recent 38

Confidence (62%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Dimona returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (17)

• 2026-05-06 02:45:00 · gdelt · 194 Fight with artillery and tanks · tone -3.15
  Article 895241
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 00:15:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -2.47
  Us fumes after iran chosen as a vice president of non proliferation treaty conference
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-27 01:15:00 · gdelt · 180 Use unconventional violence · tone -5.15
  Trumps rhetoric rajiv gandhis restraint and lessons on leadership
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 15:45:00 · gdelt · 194 Fight with artillery and tanks · tone -8.84
  Israeli girl 7 critically wounded in iranian missile attack discharged from hospital
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-15 12:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -2.26
  Double standards why irans nukes are scrutinised israel gets a pass
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 10:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.03
  Bullets and lies
  Dimona · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 22:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.23
  Uncertainty swirls iran ceasefire politics desk
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 09:15:00 · gdelt · 060 Engage in material cooperation · tone -5.42
  How iran won
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 06:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -8.12
  2 b1 us israel war on iran heightening nuclear accident risk cnd
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 21:45:00 · gdelt · 090 Investigate · tone -5.17
  True promise 4 iran resistance axis ops against us israeli sites april7
  Dimona · Iran · Israel · Lebanon
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 20:00:00 · gdelt · 1712 Seize or damage property · tone -6.36
  Trumps a whole civilization will die threat against iran exploits long standing ambiguity over what washington considers legal in war
  Dimona · Iran · Israel · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:30:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -4.58
  Iran war enters 39th day trump a whole civilization will die tonight
  Dimona · Donald Trump · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 17:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -1.04
  Iran's army pounds israeli petrochemical plants near dimona, us bases in uae kuwait
  Dimona · Iran · Israel · Tel Aviv
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 17:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -7.57
  How close is the middle east to a nuclear catastrophe
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 11:45:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -2.22
  Dimona · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 11:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.02
  5259623 %e2%80%98unconscious%e2%80%99 %e2%80%98incapacitated%e2%80%99 report reveals mojtaba khamenei%e2%80%99s status and
  Ali Khamenei · Dimona · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 09:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.67
  Unconscious report claims irans new supreme leader incapacitated in qom
  Dimona · Iran · Israel
  source ↗

Confidence history