Yemen and Lebanon are intensifying coordination within regional resistance networks amid escalating tensions with the United States and its allies.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 6 YES of 10 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (4 NO, 60% YES rate).

Entities

• Lebanon (place) gravity 0.0352 · momentum -0.019 · Q822
• Yemen (place) gravity 0.0015 · momentum +0.053 · Q805

Signals

• factor 10.2
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1.5
• edge_weight_recent 15.3
• event_count_recent 32

Confidence (50%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Lebanon and Yemen returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (13)

• 2026-05-02 02:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -2.38
  United states military damaged iran retaliation
  Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 19:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.37
  Yemenis stage massive rally in solidarity with axis of residence, hail hezbollah victory
  Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-10 11:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -8.88
  Sd w kuwait drone strike accusation puts us iran islamabad talks on a knifes edge
  Islamabad · Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 18:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.31
  Is the proposed israel us iran ceasefire already on the brink of collapse 431689
  Beirut · Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 16:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -4.92
  Israel lebanon strikes beirut iran truce
  Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 15:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -4.14
  Beirut · Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 13:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.82
  Pakistan working to broker ceasefires in lebanon yemen amid islamabad talks
  Islamabad · Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 13:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -4.04
  Israel launches fresh strikes on lebanon
  Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 17:00:00 · gdelt · 071 Provide economic aid · tone -4.08
  Why did israel attack lebanon amid ceasefire all faqs answered
  Lebanon · Tehran · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 04:45:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone +1.58
  New zealand malaysia welcome cessation us iran hotilities 743
  Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.73
  Iran rejects A.U.S. ceasefire plan as trump again threatens to bomb its infrastructure
  Donald Trump · Iran · Lebanon · Tehran · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 23:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.12
  Lebanons hezbollah and yemens houthis join iran in strike on israel
  Hezbollah · Houthis · Iran · Israel · Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 21:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.88
  Lebanon hezbollah yemen houthis join
  Beirut · Gaza Strip · Hezbollah · Houthis · Iran · Israel · Lebanon · Yemen
  source ↗

Confidence history