Iran, Yemen, and Donald Trump are converging in discourse around regional security and sanctions policy.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 33 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (67 NO, 33% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- NO Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? resolved 2026-12-31
- YES Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by June 30th? resolved 2026-06-30
- YES Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by May 31st? resolved 2026-05-31
- NO Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 30th? resolved 2026-04-30
- NO Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 21st? resolved 2026-04-21
- NO Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by April 15th? resolved 2026-04-15
Entities
- Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
- Donald Trump (person) gravity 0.0128 · momentum +6.778 · Q22686
- Yemen (place) gravity 0.0015 · momentum +0.053 · Q805
Signals
- factor_ab 4.36
- factor_ac 8.34
- factor_bc 2.1
- min_factor 2.1
- window_days 30
Confidence (50%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Any one of the three pair edges (Iran, Donald Trump, and Yemen) weakens below its 30-day baseline. The pattern requires all three to tighten — break one and the triangle dissolves.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.