Iran, Tel Aviv, and Intel are converging around shared concerns regarding semiconductor technology and regional security dynamics.

46% ↓-10% (7d) Middle East ⚪ LOW pattern: triangular_tightening generated 2026-05-06 10:07:07

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair? resolved 2026-12-31
NO Will the US strike Iran next? resolved 2026-12-31
YES US forces enter Iran by December 31? resolved 2026-12-31

Entities

Iran (place) gravity 0.1036 · momentum -0.218 · Q794
Tel Aviv (place) gravity 0.0068 · momentum -0.195 · Q33935
Intel (org) gravity 0.0014 · momentum +0.000 · Q248

Signals

factor_ab 11.13
factor_ac 1.64
factor_bc 8.6
min_factor 1.64
window_days 30

Confidence (46%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

Contributing events

No contributing events linked to this claim yet.

Confidence history

Confidence 59% → 46% across 3 observations.