Tehran, India, and Pakistan are intensifying diplomatic engagement around regional security and trade cooperation.

50% ↓0% (7d) Middle East ⚪ LOW pattern: triangular_tightening generated 2026-05-06 10:05:33

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Patterns of this shape resolved 44 YES of 86 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (42 NO, 51% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES T20 World Cup: India vs Pakistan (Game 1) resolved 2026-02-22
NO Will India invade Pakistan before July? resolved 2025-06-30
NO India-Pakistan declare war before June? resolved 2025-05-31
YES Pakistan military strike on India in May? resolved 2025-05-31
YES India military action against Pakistan before June? resolved 2025-05-31
YES Pakistan military strike on India by Friday? resolved 2025-05-09

Entities

Tehran (place) gravity 0.0490 · momentum -0.199 · Q3616
India (place) gravity 0.0027 · momentum +0.344 · Q668
Pakistan (place) gravity 0.0019 · momentum -0.233 · Q843

Signals

factor_ab 9.73
factor_ac 9.1
factor_bc 2.16
min_factor 2.16
window_days 30

Confidence (50%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

Contributing events

No contributing events linked to this claim yet.

Confidence history

Confidence 58% → 50% across 4 observations.