Israel, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, and Iran nuclear negotiations are converging as a focal point of regional tension and diplomatic activity.
Calibration
LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.
Patterns of this shape resolved 48 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (52 NO, 48% YES rate).
A few of those markets
- NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 31, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- YES Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 28, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by February 15, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- YES Will US or Israel strike Iran by March 31, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- NO Will US or Israel strike Iran by January 12, 2026? resolved 2026-12-31
- YES Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by June 30? resolved 2026-06-30
Entities
- Israel (place) gravity 0.0838 · momentum -0.221 · Q801
- Iran nuclear (topic) gravity 0.0015 · momentum +0.367
- Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (org) gravity 0.0006 · momentum -0.211 · Q260354
Signals
- factor_ab 5.01
- factor_ac 1.59
- factor_bc 1.61
- min_factor 1.59
- window_days 30
Confidence (46%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.