Israel and Lebanon are intensifying coordination with Intel on regional technology and security initiatives.

46% ↓-12% (7d) Middle East ⚪ LOW pattern: triangular_tightening generated 2026-05-06 10:00:52

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Patterns of this shape resolved 49 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (51 NO, 49% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Israel announces suspension of Lebanon offensive by April 17, 2026? resolved 2026-06-30
YES Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 20, 2026? resolved 2026-03-31
NO Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 16, 2026? resolved 2026-01-31
YES Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 8? resolved 2025-11-21
NO Israel withdraws from Lebanon before December? resolved 2024-11-30
YES Will Israel invade Lebanon before November? resolved 2024-10-31

Entities

Israel (place) gravity 0.0838 · momentum -0.221 · Q801
Lebanon (place) gravity 0.0359 · momentum -0.208 · Q822
Intel (org) gravity 0.0014 · momentum +0.000 · Q248

Signals

factor_ab 45.29
factor_ac 1.6
factor_bc 12
min_factor 1.6
window_days 30

Confidence (46%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

Contributing events

No contributing events linked to this claim yet.

Confidence history

Confidence 60% → 46% across 3 observations.