Iran's nuclear program is intensifying intelligence operations and counterintelligence measures following targeted strikes against its military leadership.

37% ↓-6% (7d) Middle East 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 09:56:35

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 2 YES of 8 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (6 NO, 25% YES rate).

A few of those markets

NO US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? resolved 2026-04-30
NO US-Iran nuclear deal by March 31? resolved 2026-03-31
YES US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? resolved 2026-03-31
NO US-Iran nuclear deal in 2025? resolved 2025-12-31
NO Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? resolved 2025-12-31
NO US-Iran nuclear deal before August? resolved 2025-07-31

Entities

Iran nuclear (topic) gravity 0.0030 · momentum +0.998
Intel (org) gravity 0.0028 · momentum +0.956 · Q248

Signals

factor 2.28
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 28.1
edge_weight_recent 64
event_count_recent 125

Confidence (37%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran nuclear and Intel returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (4)

2026-04-07 05:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.66

Iranian irgc intelligence chief killed in tehran strike

Gaza Strip · Intel · Iran · Iran nuclear · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Tehran

source ↗
2026-04-06 17:45:00 · gdelt · 193 Fight with small arms and light weapons · tone -2.72

Israel says irans intelligence chief killed tehran air strike 900648

Gaza Strip · Intel · Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Tehran

source ↗
2026-04-06 15:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.48

Iran rejects 45 day ceasefire pause war united states as israel says it killed of revolutionary guard intelligence chief majid khotam hasini khademi president trump tehran threats easter message bombi

Donald Trump · Gaza Strip · Intel · Iran · Iran nuclear · Israel · Tehran · United States

source ↗
2026-04-06 15:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.39

Irgc intelligence chief martyred in zionist strike on tehran

Gaza Strip · Intel · Iran nuclear · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Tehran

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 43% → 37% across 3 observations.