Intel and Tel Aviv are intensifying coordination on Iranian intelligence operations and regional security assessments.

39% ↑+0% (7d) Middle East 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 09:55:39

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 2 YES of 3 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (1 NO, 67% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 19°C on March 16? resolved 2026-03-16
NO Will Artificial Intelligence be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? resolved 2025-12-31
YES Tulsi Gabbard confirmed as Director of National Intelligence? resolved 2025-06-30

Entities

Tel Aviv (place) gravity 0.0071 · momentum +0.033 · Q33935
Intel (org) gravity 0.0028 · momentum +0.956 · Q248

Signals

factor 2.69
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 2.6
edge_weight_recent 7
event_count_recent 14

Confidence (39%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tel Aviv and Intel returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (5)

2026-05-06 06:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -6.08

A negotiated settlement for a sovereign iran is nigh impossible

Intel · Israel · Tel Aviv

source ↗
2026-05-04 13:00:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone -5.98

Intell 260502

Intel · Israel · Tel Aviv

source ↗
2026-04-20 12:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -6.31

5264411 israeli intelligence reveals major fracture iran%e2%80%99s leadership

Intel · Iran · Israel · Tel Aviv

source ↗
2026-04-07 14:15:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -1.30

Israel kills majid khademi intel chief of revolutionary guards in iran lebanon

Intel · Iran · Israel · Lebanon · Tel Aviv

source ↗
2026-04-06 14:30:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -4.33

Whoever builds iranian axis of eviltheir blood is on their head netanyahu after idf kills irgc intelligence head quds force unit

Benjamin Netanyahu · Intel · Iran · Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps · Israel · Israel-Gaza · Tel Aviv

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 55% → 39% across 5 observations.