Russia and Tehran are intensifying coordination as the United States faces mounting pressure in the Middle East.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 14 YES of 61 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (47 NO, 23% YES rate).

Entities

• Tehran (place) gravity 0.0533 · momentum +0.088 · Q3616
• Russia (place) gravity 0.0082 · momentum +0.008 · Q159

Signals

• factor 38.44
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1.6
• edge_weight_recent 61.5
• event_count_recent 96

Confidence (62%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tehran and Russia returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 02:15:00 · gdelt · 0871 Declare truce, ceasefire · tone -2.38
  Us gulf allies threaten iran sanctions un proposal if it doesnt release hormuz chokehold
  Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 22:45:00 · gdelt · 0871 Declare truce, ceasefire · tone -2.08
  Middle east
  Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 19:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.02
  Article 895226
  Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 10:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +0.85
  Us has limited decision making space iran says us losing support from russia china europe
  China · Europe · Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 10:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.12
  Iran between the russian and chinese models
  Iran · Israel · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:45:00 · gdelt · 057 Sign formal agreement · tone -2.30
  China and russia are helping iran reports
  China · Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -5.05
  Russia and china block un resolution on strait of hormuz
  China · Russia · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 21:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -3.55
  Russia china block bahrain sponsored un resolution on strait of hormuz
  China · Iran · Russia · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 21:30:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -6.42
  China russia veto gulf states strait shipping
  China · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 21:30:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -5.67
  Russia china block reopening strait
  China · Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 21:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.77
  Russia china veto un resolution on reopening strait of hormuz
  China · Russia · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 21:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.04
  Russia china veto un resolution on reopening strait of hormuz
  China · Russia · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 19:45:00 · gdelt · 129 Refuse to ease popular dissent · tone -4.54
  Russia china veto un resolution strait of hormiz iran
  China · Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 19:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -5.05
  Iran strait of hormuz un security council russia china
  China · Iran · Russia · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 19:30:00 · gdelt · 027 Appeal · tone -6.56
  Russia china veto un resolution hormuz 5hjdxq6 2
  China · Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 19:00:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone -6.32
  Russia china veto un resolution reopening strait hormuz
  China · Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 19:00:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -4.81
  Russia and china veto watered down un resolution aimed at reopening the strait of hormuz
  China · Russia · Strait of Hormuz · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:30:00 · gdelt · 082 Ease political dissent · tone -5.33
  Russia china veto un resolution
  China · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:30:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -6.73
  Russia china veto hormuz resolution as trumps threat to destroy iran civilisation looms
  China · Iran · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -7.66
  20260407 russian uae top diplomats discuss us israeli iranian conflict
  Iran · Israel · Russia · Tehran
  source ↗

Confidence history