United States and China are intensifying strategic coordination over Iran policy and regional sanctions enforcement.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 11 YES of 33 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (22 NO, 33% YES rate).

Entities

• United States (place) gravity 0.0596 · momentum -0.040 · Q30
• China (place) gravity 0.0081 · momentum +0.018 · Q148

Signals

• factor 62.6
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1
• edge_weight_recent 62.6
• event_count_recent 102

Confidence (66%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between United States and China returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 14:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -3.07
  When a pause becomes an ending trump tries to bring iran war to a close
  Beijing · China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 14:45:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -0.96
  Araghchi in beijing how china could shape the direction of the us iran war
  China · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 13:45:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -1.39
  China · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 13:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -3.38
  War on iran project freedom a one off stunt tightening uae blockade china counters U.S. sanctions
  China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 13:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +0.60
  Rivian explores partnership with chinese firms to develop own lidar sensors
  China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 13:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -2.91
  U turn iran denies 14 point deal with us trump ultimatum we will bomb you if you do not agree
  Beijing · China · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:30:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -1.25
  Iran war china strait of hormuz
  Beijing · China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 11:15:00 · gdelt · 163 Impose embargo, boycott, sanctions · tone -4.02
  China · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 11:15:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -1.48
  China iran talks us war hnk intl
  Beijing · China · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -0.23
  Iran will only accept fair and comprehensive peace deal abbas araghchi in meeting with china's wang yi 2026 05 06
  Beijing · China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:30:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -2.12
  Irans araghchi holds talks with chinas wang yi in beijing
  Beijing · China · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -2.65
  Iranian fm meets with chinese counterpart in beijing, holds diplomatic consultations
  China · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:15:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -2.17
  Iran foreign minister meets chinese counterpart a week before trump's beijing trip
  China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +0.76
  China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 06:30:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -2.96
  China iran hold talks to discuss opening of strait of hormuz
  China · Tehran · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 05:30:00 · gdelt · 128 Refuse to ease administrative sanctions · tone -3.67
  1571899 iran china talks
  China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 05:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.18
  Trump and congress should confront china on genocide
  China · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 04:15:00 · gdelt · 018 Make empathetic comment · tone -0.59
  Beijing · China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 04:00:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone +2.32
  Foreign policy challenges and opportunities for nepal
  China · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 03:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -3.43
  Article b8685ade 4700 598d 9f58
  Beijing · China · United States
  source ↗

Confidence history