Israel is intensifying military coordination with Al Udeid Air Base as regional tensions escalate over Iran-related conflicts.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 49 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (51 NO, 49% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• Al Udeid Air Base (place) gravity 0.0033 · momentum +0.067 · Q494083

Signals

• factor 21.8
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1
• edge_weight_recent 21.8
• event_count_recent 42

Confidence (57%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and Al Udeid Air Base returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-01 19:00:00 · gdelt · 039 Express intent to mediate · tone -2.37
  Article 894853
  Al Udeid Air Base · Hamas · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 23:30:00 · gdelt · 039 Express intent to mediate · tone -2.74
  3 fractures rock gulf alliance as uae quits opec during iran war
  Al Udeid Air Base · Hamas · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 21:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -9.29
  Qatar condemns israeli occupation aggression against global sumud flotilla
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 10:00:00 · gdelt · 173 Arrest, detain, or charge with legal action · tone -13.02
  20260430 qatar denies claims of backing icc prosecutor over netanyahu case
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 11:30:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -1.97
  Idf slays top hamas intelligence operative in northern gaza strike
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 09:30:00 · gdelt · 045 Mediate · tone -3.13
  Dont bet on qatar standing by america in the middle east opinion
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-22 12:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.54
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-21 17:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -8.05
  Qatar condemns al aqsa mosque compound storming urges international action
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-17 11:45:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.50
  How israel is trying to turn washington against ankara
  Al Udeid Air Base · Hamas · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 14:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.29
  Why the U.S. needs qatar by its side in the middle east
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 11:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -3.21
  Who is israels us envoy leading negotiations with lebanon
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 10:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -6.14
  Netanyahu seeks new enemy turkey after
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-11 16:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +6.87
  Ri opens opportunities for research collaboration with qatar
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-10 12:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -0.76
  Qatar lebanon talk mideast developments in phone call
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-09 14:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.87
  Mil 260409 pdo03
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 19:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -4.76
  4 palestinians including journalist killed in israeli strikes on gaza city sources
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-08 18:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.76
  Qatar condemns israeli airstrikes on wide areas in lebanon
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 21:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.63
  Iran israel war daily briefing
  Al Udeid Air Base · Iran · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 13:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.81
  Pakistan condemns israeli ministers storming of al aqsa mosque
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Pakistan · Qatar
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -5.70
  Qatar condemns israeli national security ministers storming of al aqsa mosque
  Al Udeid Air Base · Israel · Qatar
  source ↗

Confidence history