Iran is intensifying influence operations targeting Australian universities and academic institutions.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 36 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (64 NO, 36% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Australia (place) gravity 0.0066 · momentum -0.034 · Q408

Signals

• factor 32.1
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1
• edge_weight_recent 32.1
• event_count_recent 64

Confidence (60%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Australia returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (15)

• 2026-05-05 23:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.85
  Insane in the brain rubio says combat operations over mocks iran's leaders 20260506 p5zu4u
  Australia · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-04 11:45:00 · gdelt · 030 Express intent to engage · tone -3.22
  Australia university iran influence mohammad javad zarif
  Australia · Iran · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 23:00:00 · gdelt · 100 Demand · tone -4.19
  Trump air force search rescue iran war crimes australia ben roberts smith afghanistan
  Afghanistan · Australia · Donald Trump · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 22:45:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.20
  More than 70 per cent of australians believe donald trump handling iran war poorly
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 18:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.25
  Trumps tirades unlikely to drag australia into war
  Australia · Canberra · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 15:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.62
  Trump albanese australia iran
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 10:00:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -1.29
  Australia drops fuel standards
  Australia · Iran · Israel
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 06:00:00 · gdelt · 072 Provide military aid · tone -6.21
  Trump's exceeded my worst expectations australia should reconsider its us alliance 20260407 p5zlrl
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran · Saudi Arabia
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 03:45:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -4.94
  Trump australia latest news
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran · United States · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 03:30:00 · gdelt · 032 Express intent to cooperate · tone -2.59
  Trump iran bridges power plants australia criticism
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.64
  Australia stands firm on iran as trump slams allies
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.79
  Australia stands firm on iran as trump slams allies
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-07 00:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.21
  Australia did not help us trump lashes out at nato and pacific allies for non assistance
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran · North Atlantic Treaty Organization
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 23:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.29
  Us iran war updates donald trump lashes australia and nato as us escalates threats against iran c
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-06 23:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.69
  Didnt help us united states president donald trump hits out at australia nato over support in iran conflict
  Australia · Donald Trump · Iran · North Atlantic Treaty Organization · Tehran · United States
  source ↗

Confidence history