← back to feed
Iran's engagement with the Horn of Africa is cooling significantly.
80%
→ 0% (7d)
Middle East
pattern: falling_edge
generated 2026-09-12 14:40:19
Entities
Iran
(place)
gravity 0.0279 · momentum -0.007 · Q794
Horn of Africa
(place)
gravity 0.0003 · momentum -0.002 · Q170588
Signals
edge_weight_recent
0
edge_weight_prior
15
factor
0
event_count_prior
16
window_days
30
Confidence (80%) is computed numerically from these signals.
The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input,
the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.
What would change our mind
Co-mentions between Iran and Horn of Africa recover to their prior level over 30 days, or a single high-tier story explicitly resumes the relationship.
Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM.
Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.
Contributing events
No contributing events linked to this claim yet.
Confidence history
80%
80%
2026-09-12
2026-09-17
2026-09-12 14:40:19: 80%
2026-09-12 15:40:13: 80%
2026-09-12 16:41:37: 80%
2026-09-12 17:43:21: 80%
2026-09-12 18:41:27: 80%
2026-09-12 19:41:31: 80%
2026-09-12 20:42:34: 80%
2026-09-12 21:44:27: 80%
2026-09-12 22:45:25: 80%
2026-09-12 23:47:26: 80%
2026-09-13 00:48:59: 80%
2026-09-13 01:49:17: 80%
2026-09-13 02:49:22: 80%
2026-09-13 03:50:30: 80%
2026-09-13 04:50:07: 80%
2026-09-13 05:49:21: 80%
2026-09-13 06:50:22: 80%
2026-09-13 07:52:00: 80%
2026-09-13 08:52:27: 80%
2026-09-13 09:52:04: 80%
2026-09-13 10:51:27: 80%
2026-09-13 11:51:26: 80%
2026-09-13 12:53:31: 80%
2026-09-13 13:54:31: 80%
2026-09-13 14:58:38: 80%
2026-09-13 16:01:59: 80%
2026-09-13 17:04:20: 80%
2026-09-13 18:02:57: 80%
2026-09-13 19:04:59: 80%
2026-09-13 20:05:04: 80%
2026-09-13 21:03:35: 80%
2026-09-13 22:03:34: 80%
2026-09-13 23:04:28: 80%
2026-09-14 00:06:33: 80%
2026-09-14 01:08:21: 80%
2026-09-14 02:10:13: 80%
2026-09-14 03:12:04: 80%
2026-09-14 04:12:40: 80%
2026-09-14 05:14:28: 80%
2026-09-14 06:12:35: 80%
2026-09-14 07:13:41: 80%
2026-09-14 08:14:36: 80%
2026-09-14 09:15:41: 80%
2026-09-14 10:14:35: 80%
2026-09-14 11:16:39: 80%
2026-09-14 12:15:47: 80%
2026-09-14 13:16:04: 80%
2026-09-14 16:19:08: 80%
2026-09-14 19:24:42: 80%
2026-09-14 20:24:31: 80%
2026-09-14 21:25:44: 80%
2026-09-14 22:24:37: 80%
2026-09-14 23:24:35: 80%
2026-09-15 00:28:32: 80%
2026-09-15 01:28:28: 80%
2026-09-15 02:28:31: 80%
2026-09-15 03:29:47: 80%
2026-09-15 05:32:49: 80%
2026-09-15 06:34:07: 80%
2026-09-15 07:33:37: 80%
2026-09-15 08:35:39: 80%
2026-09-15 09:37:05: 80%
2026-09-15 10:37:12: 80%
2026-09-15 11:37:44: 80%
2026-09-15 12:39:57: 80%
2026-09-15 13:39:03: 80%
2026-09-15 16:40:39: 80%
2026-09-15 19:47:47: 80%
2026-09-15 20:49:30: 80%
2026-09-15 21:48:23: 80%
2026-09-15 22:47:56: 80%
2026-09-16 00:48:36: 80%
2026-09-16 01:49:46: 80%
2026-09-16 02:50:24: 80%
2026-09-16 03:51:55: 80%
2026-09-16 04:51:40: 80%
2026-09-16 05:52:03: 80%
2026-09-16 06:52:33: 80%
2026-09-16 07:55:04: 80%
2026-09-16 08:54:34: 80%
2026-09-16 09:54:43: 80%
2026-09-16 10:54:46: 80%
2026-09-16 11:56:29: 80%
2026-09-16 12:58:19: 80%
2026-09-16 14:58:58: 80%
2026-09-16 15:59:01: 80%
2026-09-16 16:59:00: 80%
2026-09-16 17:59:03: 80%
2026-09-16 18:59:44: 80%
2026-09-16 20:01:35: 80%
2026-09-16 21:03:20: 80%
2026-09-16 22:02:45: 80%
2026-09-16 23:03:08: 80%
2026-09-17 00:02:48: 80%
2026-09-17 01:02:31: 80%
2026-09-17 02:03:37: 80%
2026-09-17 03:05:18: 80%
2026-09-17 04:05:22: 80%
2026-09-17 05:04:27: 80%
2026-09-17 06:06:18: 80%
Confidence 80% → 80% across 100 observations.
