Iran is intensifying tensions with ADNOC through repeated attacks on its vessels in the Hormuz Strait.

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.0279 · momentum -0.007 · Q794
• ADNOC (org) gravity 0.0003 · momentum -0.002 · Q166729

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 52.2
• edge_weight_prior 1.8
• factor 29
• event_count_recent 97
• window_days 30

Confidence (59%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and ADNOC returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-08-16 08:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.18
  Uae says iran attacked adnoc vessel hormuz urges waterways reopening
  Iran · Egypt · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-16 00:15:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -3.23
  Uae says iran attacked another adnoc vessel in hormuz
  Iran · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-16 00:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -5.39
  Gcc secretary general condemns repeated hostile iranian attacks on adnoc tankers
  Iran · Saudi Arabia · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 15:45:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -8.42
  Adnoc vessel attacked in hormuz israeli strikes kill 11 in lebanon 448040
  Iran · Lebanon · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 15:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -8.05
  Third adnoc vessel attack uae accuses iran as hormuz tensions surge
  Iran · United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 14:45:00 · gdelt · 1124 Accuse · tone -2.25
  Uae to defend strait of hormuz rights after attack on adnoc vessel dr gargash says
  Iran · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 13:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.62
  Iran attacked adnoc vessel in strait of hormuz uae says
  Iran · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · United Arab Emirates · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 12:00:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -3.29
  Uae says iran attacked adnoc vessel hormuz urges waterways reopening
  Iran · Egypt · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 12:00:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -6.19
  321838 uae says iran attacked two adnoc vessels in hormuz strait
  Iran · United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 15:30:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -7.21
  Two adnoc tankers attacked in strait of hormuz uae blames iran calls it flagrant violation article
  Iran · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 14:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -6.13
  Arab nations condemn latest iranian attack on adnoc tankers
  Iran · Tehran · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 14:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -2.17
  Arab nations condemn iranian attack on adnoc tankers
  Iran · Jordan · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 13:15:00 · gdelt · 1124 Accuse · tone -6.14
  Flagrant violation uae blames iran for drone attacks on two adnoc vessels in strait of hormuz
  Iran · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 13:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.59
  Gcc chief condemns iranian attacks on adnoc tankers in strait of hormuz
  Iran · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 13:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.76
  Qatar strongly condemns iranian attack on two adnoc tankers in strait of hormuz
  Iran · Qatar · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 13:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.76
  Qatar strongly condemns iranian attack on two adnoc tankers in strait of hormuz
  Iran · Qatar · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 11:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -11.61
  5306825 uae condemns %e2%80%98hostile iranian attack%e2%80%99 2 adnoc vessels hormuz strait
  Iran · United States · Hormuz · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 09:45:00 · gdelt · 1124 Accuse · tone -3.81
  Uae denounces iranian attack on adnoc vessels in strait of hormuz as act of
  Iran · Egypt · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 03:40:11 · x
  @Reuters: UAE says Iran attacked two ADNOC vessels in Strait of Hormuz; no injuries https://reut.rs/4qmB46Q https://reut.rs/4qmB46Q
  Iran · Strait of Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 03:15:00 · gdelt · 011 Decline comment · tone -8.08
  Uae accuses iran of attacks on two adnoc vessels in strait of hormuz
  Iran · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · United Arab Emirates · ADNOC
  source ↗

Confidence history