Tension is intensifying between ADNOC and Hormuz due to recent attacks on vessels in the region.

Entities

• Hormuz (place) gravity 0.0031 · momentum -0.015 · Q888643
• ADNOC (org) gravity 0.0003 · momentum -0.002 · Q166729

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 24.7
• edge_weight_prior 1.1
• factor 22.45
• event_count_recent 42
• window_days 30

Confidence (57%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Hormuz and ADNOC returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (18)

• 2026-08-16 08:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -3.18
  Uae says iran attacked adnoc vessel hormuz urges waterways reopening
  Iran · Egypt · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-16 00:15:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -3.23
  Uae says iran attacked another adnoc vessel in hormuz
  Iran · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 15:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -8.42
  Adnoc vessel attacked in hormuz israeli strikes kill 11 in lebanon 448040
  Lebanon · United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC · Tehran · Iran · United States · Beirut · Israel · Gaza Strip
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 15:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -8.05
  Third adnoc vessel attack uae accuses iran as hormuz tensions surge
  Iran · United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 12:00:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -3.29
  Uae says iran attacked adnoc vessel hormuz urges waterways reopening
  Iran · Egypt · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 12:00:00 · gdelt · 112 Accuse · tone -6.19
  321838 uae says iran attacked two adnoc vessels in hormuz strait
  Iran · United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-15 02:20:11 · x
  @Reuters: UAE's ADNOC says one of its vessels came under attack while transiting Hormuz https://reut.rs/4wVTgGE https://reut.rs/4wVTgGE
  Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 22:46:31 · rss
  UAE's ADNOC says one of its vessels came under attack while transiting Hormuz
  Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 22:46:31 · rss
  UAE says ADNOC vessel attacked in Hormuz, vows to defend navigation rights
  Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 22:10:20 · x
  @Reuters: UAE's ADNOC says one of its vessels came under attack while transiting Hormuz https://reut.rs/4wWRZiz https://reut.rs/4wWRZiz
  Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-14 11:00:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -11.61
  5306825 uae condemns %e2%80%98hostile iranian attack%e2%80%99 2 adnoc vessels hormuz strait
  Iran · United States · Hormuz · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-10 19:30:00 · gdelt · 057 Sign formal agreement · tone -0.61
  Uaes adnoc announces 8bn gas expansion it mulls hormuz bypass
  Iraq · Hormuz · ADNOC · Syria
  source ↗
• 2026-08-10 11:30:00 · gdelt · 0311 Express intent to engage in material cooperation · tone -1.96
  Adnoc gas exploring new lng export plant to avoid hormuz
  Qatar · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-09 11:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.83
  Iran strikes uaes adnoc tanker missiles strait hormuz abu dhabi condemns attack 904556
  Iran · Tehran · United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-08-08 13:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -7.63
  Uae says iranian missile hit adnoc vessel in hormuz
  Iran · Tehran · Hormuz · ADNOC · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-08-01 11:00:00 · gdelt · 031 Express intent to engage in material cooperation · tone -3.87
  Adnoc buys five supertankers hormuz
  United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC · WTI Crude Oil Price
  source ↗
• 2026-07-31 14:05:04 · x
  @Reuters: ADNOC buys tankers as Red Sea, Hormuz crisis reshape oil trade http://reut.rs/4bmJ3dG http://reut.rs/4bmJ3dG
  Hormuz · ADNOC
  source ↗
• 2026-07-31 14:00:00 · gdelt · 031 Express intent to engage in material cooperation · tone -3.87
  Adnoc buys five supertankers as hormuz crisis tightens shipping
  United Arab Emirates · Hormuz · ADNOC · WTI Crude Oil Price
  source ↗

Confidence history