Tehran is intensifying cooperation with ASEAN amid rising tensions involving the U.S. and regional security concerns.

Entities

• Tehran (place) gravity 0.0124 · momentum -0.002 · Q3616
• ASEAN (org) gravity 0.0016 · momentum -0.009 · Q7768

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 40.2
• edge_weight_prior 2
• factor 20.1
• event_count_recent 67
• window_days 30

Confidence (56%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tehran and ASEAN returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-07-24 23:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.04
  Head for an eye U.S. ramps up for major blow to iran trump warns china
  Iran · Tehran · Donald Trump · China · ASEAN
  source ↗
• 2026-07-24 14:00:00 · gdelt · 017 Engage in symbolic act · tone -4.37
  Oman urges strait of hormuz remain open amid U.S. iran tensions
  Iran · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · ASEAN · Oman
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 14:15:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -3.15
  Us russia ukraine war rubio asean
  Iran · Tehran · Philippines · ASEAN · Ukraine · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Rubio
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 13:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -6.05
  Oil approaches 100 after houthis strike saudi tankers red sea
  Iran · Tehran · Houthis · ASEAN
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 13:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.75
  Us iran war marco rubio head for an eye strait of hormuz
  Iran · Tehran · Strait of Hormuz · Marco Rubio · ASEAN
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 12:15:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -3.75
  2026 07 23 whos telling truth rubio accuses iran not serious
  Iran · Tehran · ASEAN · Rubio
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 12:00:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -4.11
  Us russia ukraine war rubio asean
  Tehran · ASEAN · Ukraine · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Rubio
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 12:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.72
  Oil nears 100 per barrel again as iran backed houthis target red sea shipping
  Iran · Tehran · Houthis · ASEAN
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 12:00:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -3.26
  Us russia ukraine war rubio asean
  Tehran · ASEAN · Ukraine · Russia · Russia-Ukraine war · Rubio
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 09:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -3.13
  Hormuz at boiling point can iran turn the strait into an instrument of global pressure
  Iran · Tehran · ASEAN · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-23 01:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.58
  Rubio says us china must work through big differences at asean meeting
  Iran · Tehran · China · ASEAN · China tensions · Rubio
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 23:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.59
  Rubio says us china must work through big differences at asean meeting
  Iran · Tehran · China · ASEAN · China tensions · Rubio
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 19:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.57
  Ed miliband foreign secretary donald trump marco rubio asean
  Tehran · Donald Trump · Marco Rubio · ASEAN · United States · White House
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 16:45:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -1.97
  Rubio us wont allow iranian control strait hormuz
  Tehran · ASEAN · Rubio · Hormuz · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 13:45:00 · gdelt · 027 Appeal · tone -0.98
  Us open to iran talks
  Iran · Tehran · ASEAN
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 13:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -2.97
  1409851 will us iran talks resume rubio says tehran is not serious
  Iran · Tehran · ASEAN · Iran nuclear · Rubio
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 12:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -8.93
  Troublemaker of the region rubio warns asean that irans hormuz blockade sets dangerous
  Iran · Tehran · ASEAN · Rubio · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 12:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -3.70
  Iran reportedly sent us ceasefire proposal marco rubio says tehran not serious about talks
  Iran · Tehran · Marco Rubio · ASEAN · Iran nuclear
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 12:15:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.02
  Allowing iran control of hormuz dangerous precedent rubio tells asean
  Iran · Tehran · ASEAN · Rubio · Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-07-22 11:15:00 · gdelt · 044 Meet at a third location · tone -2.80
  Tehrans hormuz threat risks global fallout rubio warns as U.S. strikes iran for 11th straight night
  Iran · Tehran · ASEAN · Rubio · Hormuz
  source ↗

Confidence history