Iraq is coordinating with OPEC partners on crude oil production adjustments, driving upward pressure on WTI crude prices.

59% → 0% (7d) Middle East 🟡 MEDIUM pattern: rising_edge generated 2026-05-06 09:27:09

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 10 YES of 29 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (19 NO, 34% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? resolved 2026-06-30
YES Will Iran strike Iraq by April 30, 2026? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? resolved 2026-04-30

Entities

Iraq (place) gravity 0.0046 · momentum +0.279 · Q796
WTI Crude Oil Price (indicator) gravity 0.0012 · momentum +0.950

Signals

factor 29
window_days 30
edge_weight_prior 0.5
edge_weight_recent 14.5
event_count_recent 29

Confidence (59%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iraq and WTI Crude Oil Price returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (4)

2026-05-04 08:00:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -1.27

Opec seven agree 188000 bpd output adjustment for june

Iraq · Saudi Arabia · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-04 08:00:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -4.29

Amid strait of hormuz bottlenecks opec hikes oil production quotas

Iraq · Strait of Hormuz · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 13:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -2.15

Opecs no 2 producer burns its own gas then buys irans

Iran · Iraq · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-04-07 00:15:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone -4.07

07042026 middle east gulf was source for 8 of 2025 U.S. crude oil imports analysis

Gulf · Iraq · Middle East · Qatar · Saudi Arabia · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗

Confidence history

Confidence 59% → 59% across 7 observations.