Iran and China are intensifying diplomatic coordination on regional security and de-escalation efforts.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 37 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (63 NO, 37% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• China (place) gravity 0.0081 · momentum +0.018 · Q148

Signals

• factor 94.2
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2.5
• edge_weight_recent 235.5
• event_count_recent 383

Confidence (69%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and China returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-06 14:45:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -1.01
  China · Iran · Washington, D.C.
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 14:45:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -0.96
  Araghchi in beijing how china could shape the direction of the us iran war
  China · Iran · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 14:30:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -2.80
  Beijing · China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 13:30:00 · gdelt · 026 Appeal · tone -2.79
  Wang yi meets araghchi calls for de escalation hormuz reopening
  Beijing · China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:45:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -0.88
  Us iran war china
  Beijing · China · China tensions · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:45:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.18
  Us suspends hormuz shipping escort mission amid iran peace talks push
  China · Iran · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:30:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -1.25
  Iran war china strait of hormuz
  Beijing · China · Iran · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 12:30:00 · gdelt · 036 Express intent to meet or negotiate · tone -0.39
  Trumps latest move suggests a diplomatic resolution may still be on the table
  Beijing · China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 11:15:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone +1.24
  Iran live updates ukmto reports attacks 2 ships
  Beijing · China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 11:15:00 · gdelt · 164 Halt negotiations · tone -1.48
  China iran talks us war hnk intl
  Beijing · China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 0256 Appeal to yield · tone -0.85
  Article d8bb1fb3 4590 50b0 99ad
  Beijing · China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 10:15:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -8.70
  Chinas top envoy tells his iranian counterpart a comprehensive ceasefire is needed
  China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:58:54 · rss
  In Talks With Iran, China Calls for Opening of Strait of Hormuz
  China · Iran · Strait of Hormuz
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:35:39 · rss
  China calls for Strait to be reopened 'as soon as possible' in Iran talks
  China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -1.71
  West is crumbling into barbarism former indian envoy
  China · Iran · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.88
  China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -2.12
  Irans araghchi holds talks with chinas wang yi in beijing
  Beijing · China · Iran · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone +0.89
  Iran foreign minister meets chinese counterpart for first time since iran war started
  Beijing · China · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:15:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -2.17
  Iran foreign minister meets chinese counterpart a week before trump's beijing trip
  China · Iran · Tehran
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:15:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -2.65
  Iranian fm meets with chinese counterpart in beijing, holds diplomatic consultations
  Beijing · China · Iran · Xi Jinping
  source ↗

Confidence history