claim · WTI crude oil price movements are breaking into mainstream f

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 8 YES of 27 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (19 NO, 30% YES rate).

A few of those markets

YES Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of June? resolved 2026-06-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $60 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
NO Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in April? resolved 2026-04-30
YES Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in April? resolved 2026-04-30

Entities

WTI Crude Oil Price (indicator) gravity 0.0012 · momentum +0.950

Signals

factor 21
share_lift 0.135
n_prior_low 0
n_prior_top 0
prior_share 0
window_days 14
n_recent_low 135
n_recent_top 21
recent_share 0.135

Confidence (73%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Tier-1 sources stop covering the narrative for 14 days, returning it to fringe-only territory.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

… events · last 30d

Contributing events (12)

2026-05-06 11:29:52 · rss

Oil prices fall to $100 a barrel as Trump hails ‘great progress’ on Iran deal

Donald Trump · Iran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-06 11:14:45 · rss

Oil prices ease as US pauses Project Freedom to seek deal with Iran

Iran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-06 11:03:55 · rss

Oil prices retreat and global stocks hit record highs after Trump hails ‘great progress’ on Iran deal – business live

Donald Trump · Iran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-06 02:37:03 · rss

These Countries Embrace E.V.s to Avoid Oil Price Shocks

WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-05 20:06:46 · rss

Oil Prices Slide but Remain Elevated as U.S.-Iran Cease-Fire Is Tested

Iran · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-04 12:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +1.00

Article uae investors produce oil without restrictions opec energy minister

Saudi Arabia · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-04 12:15:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -0.17

Uae says opec exit not directed against anyone

Riyadh · WTI Crude Oil Price

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2026-05-04 12:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone +0.18

Uaes opec departure not directed against anyone oil chief says

Riyadh · Saudi Arabia · WTI Crude Oil Price

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2026-05-04 11:00:00 · gdelt · 013 Make optimistic comment · tone -0.86

Uae opec exit oil not directed against anyone

WTI Crude Oil Price

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2026-05-04 10:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -2.92

Uae says it left opec good terms iran criticises exit

Gaza Strip · Iran · Israel · WTI Crude Oil Price

source ↗
2026-05-03 14:45:35 · rss

OPEC Plus, in Symbolic Gesture, to Increase Oil Production

WTI Crude Oil Price

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2026-04-28 13:53:00 · rss

High Oil Prices Are Devastating Island States – and Moving the Needle on Climate

WTI Crude Oil Price

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Confidence history

Confidence 69% → 73% across 8 observations.