Israel and India are rapidly intensifying diplomatic and strategic coordination across defense, trade, and regional security initiatives.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 49 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (51 NO, 49% YES rate).

Entities

• Israel (place) gravity 0.0886 · momentum +0.056 · Q801
• New Delhi (place) gravity 0.0031 · momentum -0.126 · Q987

Signals

• factor 17.08
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 2.5
• edge_weight_recent 42.7
• event_count_recent 82

Confidence (55%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Israel and New Delhi returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-04 15:15:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -4.11
  India not playing balancing act chosen sides israel uae journalist
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-05-03 05:30:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -4.42
  The pakistan factor in central asia
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 22:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone +2.79
  Pm modi set to embark on europe africa visits
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 22:00:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone -0.62
  India diplomatic poise prudence west asia crisis
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 14:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -1.91
  Nato states would have joined like vultures if us succeeded in iran expert
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-30 01:15:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -0.51
  Indias role questioned in brics
  Iran · Israel · New Delhi · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 14:15:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -2.81
  India seeks accountability for attacks on un peacekeepers flags west asia concerns
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 14:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone +1.89
  India cagey on israel propped hexagon of alliances against islamic nato
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 07:30:00 · gdelt · 070 Provide aid · tone -2.26
  Article 894530
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-29 06:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -1.30
  India calls attacks on commercial ships in st of hormuz as
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-28 00:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -3.54
  India insistence on diluting language on israel and palestine a reason for lack of joint statement at brics meet jairam ramesh
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-27 19:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -3.38
  Indias somalia error will backfire in bangladesh
  Israel · New Delhi · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-27 18:45:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -3.82
  Indias insistence on diluting language on israel and palestine a reason for lack of joint statement at brics meet jairam
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-27 10:45:00 · gdelt · 025 Appeal to yield · tone -4.87
  Brics meet ends without joint statement in delhi congress blames indias israel palestine stance over gaza war
  Israel · Lebanon · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-26 18:15:00 · gdelt · 110 Disapprove · tone +1.34
  Indias position on palestine unchanged no consensus on west asia at brics meet due to differences sources
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 01:15:00 · gdelt · 012 Make pessimistic comment · tone -2.40
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 00:00:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -2.59
  West asia conflict no brics consensus on war indias chair summary notes deep concern
  Iran · Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 00:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -6.93
  Modi government has betrayed traditional indian principles by its silence on gaza war impact jairam ramesh
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 22:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -6.93
  Modi government has betrayed traditional indian principles by its silence on gaza war impact jairam ramesh
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 14:15:00 · gdelt · 141 Demonstrate or rally · tone -7.88
  Congress slams pm modi over silence on gaza war lebanon strikes
  Israel · New Delhi
  source ↗

Confidence history