Tehran is intensifying tensions with Kyiv following accusations and diplomatic summons related to maritime incidents.

Entities

• Tehran (place) gravity 0.0155 · momentum +0.006 · Q3616
• Kyiv (place) gravity 0.0086 · momentum +0.014 · Q1899

Signals

• edge_weight_recent 12.6
• edge_weight_prior 0.5
• factor 25.2
• event_count_recent 18
• window_days 30

Confidence (58%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Tehran and Kyiv returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (6)

• 2026-07-26 03:30:00 · gdelt · 018 Make empathetic comment · tone -3.93
  Ukraine war briefing iran accuses kyiv vessel caspian sea
  Iran · Tehran · Ukraine · Kyiv · Russia-Ukraine war
  source ↗
• 2026-07-26 02:15:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -5.31
  Tehran summons ukrainian diplomats after kyiv bombs iranian ship caspian
  Tehran · Ukraine · Kyiv · Iran nuclear · Iranian · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-07-26 01:30:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -7.25
  Iran condemns ukrainian attack on commercial ship as zelenskiy alleges russia aids tehran
  Iran · Tehran · Russia · Kyiv · Volodymyr Zelensky · Iran nuclear
  source ↗
• 2026-07-26 00:15:00 · gdelt · 060 Engage in material cooperation · tone -11.83
  Ukraine attacks iranian ship kills sailor tehran
  Tehran · Ukraine · Kyiv · Russia-Ukraine war · Iran nuclear · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-07-26 00:15:00 · gdelt · 190 Fight · tone -11.67
  Ukraine attacks iranian ship kills sailor tehran
  Tehran · Ukraine · Kyiv · Russia-Ukraine war · Iran nuclear · Iranian
  source ↗
• 2026-07-25 20:30:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -11.67
  Ukraine attacks iranian ship kills sailor tehran
  Tehran · Ukraine · Kyiv · Russia-Ukraine war · Iran nuclear · Iranian
  source ↗

Confidence history