Iran and Madrid are intensifying diplomatic tensions over US military presence and regional security disagreements.

Calibration

MEDIUM tier, this pattern is present in calibration data but with limited resolutions. Treat the confidence as a directional estimate, not a precise probability.

Patterns of this shape resolved 43 YES of 100 historical Polymarket markets that share at least one of this claim's entities (57 NO, 43% YES rate).

Entities

• Iran (place) gravity 0.1149 · momentum +0.109 · Q794
• Madrid (place) gravity 0.0012 · momentum +0.122 · Q2807

Signals

• factor 42.8
• window_days 30
• edge_weight_prior 1
• edge_weight_recent 42.8
• event_count_recent 77

Confidence (63%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Edge weight between Iran and Madrid returns to its 30-day baseline, or two clean weeks pass with no fresh co-mention from a tier-1 source.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (20)

• 2026-05-02 10:15:00 · gdelt · 172 Impose administrative sanctions · tone -4.67
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 20:00:00 · gdelt · 172 Impose administrative sanctions · tone -4.57
  Spain defense minister dismisses trump treat to cut troops
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 08:30:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -4.87
  Trump considers troop cuts in spain and italy over continued disagreements on the war in i
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-05-01 05:00:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -5.53
  Trump mulls us troop cuts in italy spain over iran conflict article
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 20:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -6.56
  Article 893997
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 14:15:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone -4.15
  Leaked pentagon email sparks nato crisis as us weighs punishing spain over iran stance
  Iran · Madrid · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-25 12:15:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone -4.10
  Iran · Madrid · United States
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 17:30:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -2.49
  Sanchez sidesteps us dispute as spain denies support for iran war ops
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 17:00:00 · gdelt · 120 Reject · tone -2.13
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 16:00:00 · gdelt · 130 Threaten · tone -8.68
  Us considers suspending spain from nato reuters
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 13:15:00 · gdelt · 131 Threaten non-force · tone -4.81
  Pentagon considers suspending spain from nato
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-24 10:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -4.57
  Pedro sanchez donald trump nato spain nato membership
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-22 13:30:00 · gdelt · 195 Employ aerial weapons · tone -3.80
  Pedro sanchez rise of a european restrainer
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-19 19:15:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -4.17
  Spain calls on eu to end association agreement with israel
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 11:15:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -7.34
  Netanyahu effigy malaga el burgo israel spain genocide mayor anti semitism
  Iran · Israel · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-16 02:45:00 · gdelt · 051 Praise or endorse · tone -6.61
  Iran war united states araghchi spain albarez
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-14 21:45:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -0.98
  Xi and sanchez vow safeguard multilateralism
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-14 11:30:00 · gdelt · 018 Make empathetic comment · tone -2.48
  Iran as a trigger for the end of nato
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-14 02:00:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -0.92
  Spain reopens tehran embassy resumes diplomatic activity
  Iran · Madrid
  source ↗
• 2026-04-13 17:30:00 · gdelt · 050 Engage in diplomatic cooperation · tone -7.43
  Spain israel row escalates after netanyahu effigy is blown to pieces at easter festival near malaga
  Iran · Israel · Madrid
  source ↗

Confidence history