Hong Kong is experiencing a sharp surge in negative geopolitical activity and security concerns over the past two weeks.

Calibration

LOW tier, this pattern is structurally interesting but not directly calibratable yet. The confidence is a function of raw signal magnitude only.

Entities

• Hong Kong (place) gravity 0.0007 · momentum -0.083 · Q8646

Signals

• factor 5.8
• n_prior 5
• cell_lat 22
• cell_lon 114
• n_recent 29
• cell_size 0.5
• tone_recent -1.35
• window_days 14
• nearest_place Hong Kong
• nearest_place_km 37.7

Confidence (61%) is computed numerically from these signals. The sentence prose was written by an LLM given only the structured signals as input, the LLM never sees or chooses the confidence number.

What would change our mind

Event volume in the cell drops back to its prior 30-day baseline, or no new events arrive there for 7 consecutive days.

Inversion conditions are a property of the pattern detector, not the LLM. Watch for this signal move and the claim should weaken or be superseded.

Where the contributing events happen

Contributing events (18)

• 2026-05-06 14:45:00 · gdelt · 160 Reduce relations · tone -6.32
  Hong Kong · Italy
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 11:15:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone +1.56
  26081467.vodafone take full control uk mobile operator
  Hong Kong · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 060 Engage in material cooperation · tone -3.58
  Japan visitors warned over severe
  China · Hong Kong · Japan
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone +1.25
  26081163.vodafone take full control uk mobile operator
  Hong Kong · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 10:30:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone +1.24
  26081163.vodafone take full control uk mobile operator
  Hong Kong · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 09:15:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone +2.45
  All 90 hong kong lawmakers visit beijing first time 1997 handover
  China · Hong Kong
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:30:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone +1.25
  26081163.vodafone take full control uk mobile operator
  Hong Kong · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 08:00:00 · gdelt · 061 Cooperate economically · tone +1.25
  26081163.vodafone take full control uk mobile operator
  Hong Kong · United Kingdom
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 07:00:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -3.69
  I think hes endangering a lot of catholics donald trump reignites feud with pope leo
  China · Hong Kong
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 05:00:00 · gdelt · 020 Make an appeal · tone -5.36
  21 killed 61 injured in blast at fireworks factory in china's hunan article
  Hong Kong · Xi Jinping
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 02:15:00 · gdelt · 084 Return, release · tone -2.69
  Trump says pope leo is endangering a lot of catholics
  China · Hong Kong · Iran · Xi Jinping
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 02:00:00 · gdelt · 010 Make public statement · tone +0.60
  Andres mug inspiring prank global brand or a one hit wonder extract
  France · Hong Kong
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 00:30:00 · gdelt · 040 Consult · tone -2.08
  Beijings backing hong kong can plan future energy crises
  China · Hong Kong
  source ↗
• 2026-05-06 00:00:00 · gdelt · 173 Arrest, detain, or charge with legal action · tone -1.22
  Pope leo asks for truth after new criticism from trump
  China · Hong Kong
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 23:45:00 · gdelt · 111 Criticize or denounce · tone +1.55
  Harnessing power chinese tourists
  China · Hong Kong
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 21:30:00 · gdelt · 043 Host a visit · tone +2.08
  Heavy souls and weightless bronze inside the brodin gallery
  Germany · Hong Kong · Kenya
  source ↗
• 2026-05-05 18:30:00 · gdelt · 046 Engage in negotiation · tone -9.03
  Trump targets pope leo xiv again says pontiff is endangering catholics
  Hong Kong · Iran
  source ↗
• 2026-04-23 13:15:00 · gdelt · 042 Make a visit · tone -3.38
  Us iran war chokes hormuz can central asias middle corridor rise rescue
  Hong Kong · Iran · Turkey
  source ↗

Confidence history